Inforum and EBP (formerly Economic Development Research Group) investigated the economic impacts of the deterioration of electric utilities, water supply and wastewater utilities, and surface transportation infrastructure over the next 20 years. The study was sponsored by the American Society of Civil Engineers. The full reports are available online.

Inforum worked with the U.S. Committee on the Marine Transportation System to examine the effects of water transportation infrastructure spending on the economy. The study was conducted using the Inforum Lift model. The policy scenarios include investing up to $87 billion by 2030, with higher amounts of spending on operations and maintenance. The study shows that increased infrastructure spending provided widespread economic benefits, including enhanced labor productivity, job growth, and income.

More information and the full report, executive summary, and press release are available. A review article published in the Waterways Journal also is available.

Inforum held its 52^nd annual outlook conference at the University of Maryland. About 75 representatives from government, private industry, and academic organizations participated in the event. In addition to the U.S. economic outlook, topics included Brexit, economic effects of climate policy, measurement of income inequality, and macroeconomic analysis of the CBO. The conference agenda and other details are available, including slides of the select presentations.

Total nominal US health care spending as measured in the National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA) reached nearly $3.5 trillion in 2017, or about 17.9 percent of GDP. This relationship is a demand side measure, relating health care expenditures in final demand to total final demand, which is equal to GDP. GDP is also measured as the sum of value added by industry. Other attempts to measure the health care share of value added have resulted in much lower shares than the demand side measure.

In a previous paper we traced the sectoral contributions to health care supply within an input-output (IO) framework, for the year 2012. In this paper we update and extend this analysis in current prices, from 1997-2017. We investigate the impacts of changes in industry structure, international trade and sectoral productivity on the relative contributions of industries to health care supply.

These papers and earlier studies are available.

Inforum teamed with the Manufacturing Institute to quantify the economic contribution of Illinois’ manufacturing sector to the state economy. Additionally, select county economies were analyzed. Inforum used IMPLAN to measure direct, indirect, and induced impacts.

Manufacturing’s direct activity accounts for 12% of Illinois GDP and directly employ over 590,000 workers. When upstream supply-chain (indirect) and income-related (induced) effects are considered, manufacturing’s contribution to the state economy grows in significance. Total (direct + indirect + induced) employment swells to 1.5 million. Meanwhile, total value-added approaches $200 billion.

The full report is available at the Illinois Manufacturer’s Association website.

Inforum worked with Business Roundtable to examine the effects of infrastructure investment on the economy. Investing in infrastructure pays for itself several times over. Every additional $1 invested in infrastructure delivers roughly $3.70 in additional economic growth over 20 years. Investing an additional $737 billion over 10 years adds $5.9 trillion to real GDP over 20 years as a result of a 0.10 percentage point increase in the average annual real GDP growth rate over that period. Increased infrastructure investment also boosts labor productivity, job growth, and wages.

More information and the full report are available.

Inforum worked with Business Roundtable to estimate the economic impacts of scaling back the Optional Practical Training (OPT) Program. OPT offers temporary employment authorization to international students in the United States, allowing eligible students and recent graduates to gain valuable work experience in their field of study. The analysis finds that a 60 percent reduction in OPT participation would lead to about a 0.25 percentage point decline in real GDP by 2028. Curbing the OPT program would also eliminate over 400,000 jobs and reduce real hourly wages by 17 cents over the next decade.

More information and the full report are available.

Inforum held its 51^st annual outlook conference at the University of Maryland. About 75 representatives from government, private industry, and academic organizations participated in the event. In addition to the U.S. economic outlook, topics included labor participation, effects of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act, trade wars, and space economics. The conference agenda and other details are available, including slides of the select presentations.

Inforum held its annual outlook conference at the University of Maryland. About 75 representatives from government, private industry, and academic organizations participated in the event. In addition to the U.S. economic outlook, topics included health policy, tax reform, trade, and infrastructure. The conference agenda and other details are available, including slides of the select presentations.

Inforum reported analysis of the macroeconomic impacts of the proposed Senate Tax Reform. The study was conducted using the Inforum Lift model, coupled with Quantria Strategies’ microsimulation tax model. The study includes impacts of increased personal consumption, investment, labor supply, and productivity to assess potential dynamic feedback effects. The scenario horizon is from 2018 to 2027.

Download the full report.

Inforum partnered with the National Association of Manufacturers to analyze the footprint of the HVAC and water heating industry for AHRI (Air-Conditioning, Heating, & Refrigeration Institute). The HVACR manufacturing industry serves many basic requirements of the household, industry, and commercial sectors. These include home and building climate control, supply of hot water, and refrigeration for food, beverage, and industrial needs. The report includes national and state-level economic impacts. In addition to direct economic impacts, the report provides estimates of upstream supplier and downstream distributor/installer activity.

Purchase the report.

• Even when it is assumed currency responds fully and immediately, the House GOP Blueprint still results in near-term increase in unemployment, only returning to the long-run forecast in 2020.
• When currency responses are lagged over a five-year period, the House GOP Blueprint results in a dramatic spike in unemployment to almost 11%   levels above post financial crisis highs in 2010.
• Employment changes, in large part, can be traced to decreased consumption of these services stemming from higher prices on goods due to the tax.
• As for industry-by-industry conclusions, most industries experience job contraction. Several of the hardest hit are in the healthcare space   hospitals, ambulatory health services, and nursing and residential care. Job losses ranging from 5% (as compared to the Congressional Budget Office forecast) to 20%.
• In addition to healthcare, the accommodations sector also fares poorly under the tax with employment decreases of 15%-20%.
• Although most industries experience job losses, employment in a handful of industries does increase. Support activities for mining experience significant job employment expansion (5%-16%) due to increased investment in oil and gas drilling.

Inforum published its semiannual forecast of the U.S. economy through 2040. The forecasts are constructed with the Inforum Lift and Iliad models to provide extensive macroeconomic and sectoral detail. A summary of the projections and the current outlook is available. The document includes a summary of current conditions, risks to the outlook, and notes on construction of these long-run economic projections, along with tables that present the macroeconomic and industry-level forecasts.

Inforum economist Jeff Lemieux and NAM Chief Economist Chad Moutray discuss issues surrounding the so-called Cadillac Tax in a Health Affairs blog. The Cadillac Tax is a 40 percent excise tax on high-cost employer health benefit plans. Now scheduled to be implemented in 2020, the Cadillac tax would effectively cap the current tax exclusion for employer health benefits. Topics covered include how the tax affects each industry over time, how firms may adapt to the tax by altering their health plan offerings, and generally if the tax will accomplish its goals.


About That Cadillac Tax

Inforum's Executive Director, Douglas Meade, presented Inforum's contribution to The Roadmap for the Washington Region's Economic Future to the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments. Inforum identified seven economic clusters which can help drive the region's growth while reducing reliance on the Federal Government. This work was originally presented in January 2016.

Media coverage: Washington Business Journal, WAMU Radio, The Hoya

Inforum's 24th World Conference will take place in Osnabrück, Germany from August 29th through September 2nd, 2016. Researchers from around the world will gather to present their latest work and input-output models. More information is available here and here.

The 2030 Group, a collection of local business and academic leaders, released "The Roadmap for the Washington Region's Economic Future." The report, which was prepared by George Mason University's Dr. Stephen Fuller, describes strategies to strengthen the local economy, increase employment opportunities, and improve the quality of life in the metropolitan area. In order to achieve these goals, the region must build its existing competitive advantages.

Inforum contributed to the report by identifying and analyzing seven economic clusters that can drive the Washington region's development over the coming decade. The clusters were selected for their employment levels, high wages, and existing regional concentration. Additionally, Inforum supplied two employment forecasts. These scenarios illustrate the benefits of pivoting away from heavy reliance on Federal spending.

More information, including all available research reports, are available on the 2030 Roadmap site.

Inforum held its 48th annual outlook conference at the University of Maryland. About 85 representatives from government, private industry, and academic organizations participated in the event. In addition to the U.S. economic outlook, topics included regional economic development, income inequality, productivity, and developments in EIA energy statistics. The conference agenda and other details are available, including slides and video of the outlook presentation.

Inforum published its semiannual forecast of the U.S. economy through 2040. The forecasts are constructed with the Inforum Lift and Iliad models to provide extensive macroeconomic and sectoral detail. A summary of the projections and the current outlook is available. The document includes a summary of current conditions, risks to the outlook, and notes on construction of these long-run economic projections, along with tables that present the macroeconomic and industry-level forecasts.

Inforum partnered with Industrial Economics (IEc) to examine the impact of EPA's Clean Power Plan (CPP) on jobs and the overall economy. Douglas Meade, Inforum's Director of Research, used the LIFT model to determine that the CPP will likely result in 196,000 new jobs and increased capital investment by 2025. Co-author and Principal at IEc, Jason Price, stated that "jobs created by investment in energy efficiency are likely to more than offset any job losses in coal mining and other sectors." A press release describing the report and IEc is available. The full report also is available.

Inforum's Executive Director, Jeff Werling, was a panelist on The Diane Rehm Show to discuss the Pacific Maritime Association's labor dispute and its impacts on the U.S economy. Inforum's analysis states that the impending strike by dockworkers could cost the U.S. economy $2 billion a day. An archived version of the discussion is available on the show's website.

Inforum held its 47th annual outlook conference at the University of Maryland. About 85 representatives from government, private industry, and academic organizations participated in the event. In addition to the U.S. economic outlook, topics included inequality, developments in national economic statistics, a panel discussion on health care, and funding of U.S. infrastructure. The conference agenda and other details are available, including slides and video of the outlook presentation.

The Aspen Institute's program on Manufacturing and Society in the 21st Century and the MAPI Foundation, the research affiliate of the Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation, jointly sponsored a report titled Lifting the Crude Oil Export Ban: The Impact on U.S. Manufacturing. Thomas J. Duesterberg, Executive Director of The Aspen Institute's Manufacturing and Society in the 21st Century program, and Donald A. Norman, Director of Economic Studies at the MAPI Foundation, were coauthors of the study together with Jeffrey Werling of Inforum.

The paper employed the Inforum LIFT economic forecasting model to analyze how removing the ban on crude oil exports could add to growth in manufacturing by stimulating higher levels of oil production in the United States. The study found both macroeconomic benefits, including higher GDP, employment levels, and household income, and industrial sector gains.

A press release and full report are available.

The National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) worked with Inforum to investigate the economic benefits of a renewed effort to meet the United States' infrastructure needs. The report, "Catching Up: Greater Focus Needed to Achieve A More Competitive Infrastructure," also documents the history of infrastructure investments to reveal steep declines in the past decade.

Inforum Executive Director, Jeffrey Werling, asserts that "well-planned infrastructure investments can provide high, long-term returns to investment, and they can also boost jobs and growth in the short term. It is time to cut through the political smoke and mirrors to make a commitment to stronger and smarter infrastructure investment." A press release and Executive Overview is available.

Media Coverage: Wall Street Journal, Pittsburgh Post Gazette, The Hill, Roll Call, American Shipper, Industry Week, and Civil+Structural Engineer.

The twenty-second Inforum World Conference was held in Alexandria, Virginia from August 30th to September 6th, 2014. This year's Inforum World Conference hosts is the University of Maryland. Over 40 participants from around the globe gathered to discuss their recent work. Alexandria sits less than 7 miles south of Washington, D.C., not far from the UMCP campus. See the conference page for a full listing of papers, presentations, and photos.

The 22nd International Input-Output Conference was held in Lisbon, Portugal from July 14th to July 18th, 2014. The conference was organized by the International Input-Output Association (IIOA). Inforum team members presented two papers at the conference. Doug Meade provided a keynote presentation titled "Some Thoughts about the Interindustry Macroeconomic Model". Ron Horst presented "The Supply Side of Health Care." More information about this project, including the related BEA Survey of Current Business article, is available. A complete listing of International Input-Output Conference presentations also is available.

The Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM) worked with Inforum to investigate the economic scope of the manufacturing, distribution, and use of agricultural machinery and equipment, producing a paper entitled "The Economic Impact of the Agricultural Equipment Industry." The second paper of the series followed in September, entitled "The Economic Footprint of the Construction Equipment Industry on the U.S. Economy."

National Association of Manufacturers (NAM) and National Retail Federation worked with Inforum to investigate the potential economic consequences of a shutdown of west coast ports due to difficulties in the negotiation of new labor contracts. The NAM and NRF asked economists from Inforum to quantify the macroeconomic consequences of a West Coast ports closure, considering various durations of time. The Inforum analysis used the LIFT economic model and identified the impact on U.S. employment, output, and income if port operations cease for 5, 10, or 20 days at 30 West Coast ports along the continental United States. The full study is available.

There is a common assertion that health care is over one-sixth (or about 18 percent) of the economy. This conclusion, however, is based only on a measure of health care demand. It is much more difficult to identify a corresponding ratio in the supply side data of the economy, that is, in terms of value added and employment.

Our work reconciles information about the supply and demand sides of the national health sector. We use input-output techniques to link the final demand values from the National Health Expenditure Accounts (NHEA) to domestic production and imports of commodities, industry value added, and industry employment. We find that in 2012, health care production required about 15.4 percent of total value added and 18.7 percent of civilian employment. In addition, domestic health care demand required about 1.5 percent of GDP in imports.

A summary paper on this topic was prepared with support from the Office of the Actuary in the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services and published in the Survey of Current Business in April 2014. Additionally, a working paper/technical appendix is available.

The ILO Employment Trends team has worked in collaboration with Inforum (University of Maryland) to develop employment projection models for a number of developing countries. The development of the Philippines Employment Projections Model is based on the ILO Trends - Inforum methodology and was commissioned by the ILO Country Office for the Philippines in September 2010. This paper uses an Inforum type model of the Philippines to examine projections of skills and occupational employment demand, and addresses the questions of skills mismatch, vulnerable employment and the prospects for increasing the share of good jobs in the economy.

The full white paper is available.

Inforum held its 46th annual outlook conference at the University of Maryland. About 90 representatives from government, private industry, and academic organizations participated in the event. The conference agenda and other details are available, including slides and video of the outlook presentation.

The Washington Post's article, "The shale-gas boom won't do much for climate change. But it will make us richer", discusses the key findings of the report from Stanford's Energy Modeling Forum. The study concludes that the shale-gas boom in the United States, by itself, will not contribute to a significant reduction in the nation's carbon emission levels. However, despite its insubstantial response to climate change, shale-gas will aid the nation's economy and its consumers through cheaper energy prices.

Inforum worked in cooperation with Mitre to perform this research. Inforum's Lift model, along with Mitre's use of the MARKAL model, was used to study how an increase in natural gas could transform the United States economy. Some of the notable results include shale gas's impact on future carbon emissions levels and energy prices.

The twenty-first Inforum World Conference was held in Listvyanka, Russia from August 25th to September 1st, 2013. The conference hosts were Inforum's Russian partners at Novosibirsk State University. Listvyanka sits on the coast of one of the world's largest and deepest freshwater lakes, Lake Baikal. It is less than 70 kilometers (43 miles) from Irkutsk, one of Siberia's largest cities. See the conference page for a full listing of papers, presentations, and photos.

The U.S. Energy Information Administration released additional Annual Energy Outlook 2013 content. The updated and expanded material includes a comparison of the AEO2013 Reference Case with projections from other organizations. Inforum provided projections of economic growth, total energy consumption, electricity, natural gas, liquid fuels, and coal.

Other participating organizations included the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), the Social Security Administration (SSA), Oxford Economic Group (OEG), Blue Chip Consensus, International Energy Agency (IEA), and the Office of Management and Budget (OMB). An overview of the comparisons and detailed data tables are available.

The Aspen Institute and MAPI (Manufacturers Alliance for Productivity and Innovation) partnered with Inforum to study how a manufacturing resurgence would affect the U.S. economy. The study provides policy recommendations to take advantage of current momentum and bolster manufacturing growth. Additionally, the paper compares how the economy would look following two different growth scenarios.

If a manufacturing resurgence is achieved, GDP could be $1.5 trillion greater than under the baseline scenario by 2025. The number of manufacturing jobs could grow by 307,000 per year through 2025 under the resurgence scenario. Meanwhile, only 23,000 manufacturing jobs per year would be created in the baseline scenario. Additionally, a manufacturing renaissance would help the trade balance shift from a $500 billion deficit to a $700 billion surplus by 2025. The full paper is available. A press release also is available.

The 45th annual Inforum Outlook conference was held on December 13th, 2012 at the University of Maryland. The latest Inforum economic outlook was presented to a gathering of 90 professionals from government, business, and academia. See the conference page for conference agenda, slides, and video.

Inforum and the National Association of Manufacturers conducted a study of the economic impacts of fiscal policies specified in the Budget Control Act of 2011. The study extended earlier work, published in June 2012, by considering economic effects of tax increases and cuts to nondefense expenditures in addition to the defense spending cuts studied earlier. In addition to long-run effects, immediate effects due to anticipation of future changes also are considered. The Congressional Budget Office predicts a short but significant recession with unemployment reaching 9% and recovery starting in the second half of 2013. Inforum offers a less optimistic prediction about the effects of the potential Fiscal Cliff. Inforum Executive Director Jeffrey Werling argues that the fiscal cliff already is having an effect even though policies are not scheduled to take effect for two months.
More details are available in a press release. A NAM press release, a report summary, and the full report are available. The work was featured in the Washington Post on October 26, 2012, and a summary is available from the University of Maryland.

Inforum and the Economic Development Research Group investigated the economic impacts of the deterioration of airports, marine ports, and inland waterway transportation infrastructure over the next 30 years. The work was sponsored by the American Society of Civil Engineers. The full report, titled "Failure to Act: The Economic Impact of Current Investment Trends in Airports, Inland Waterways, and Marine Ports Infrastructure", is available online.

The twentieth Inforum World Conference was held in Florence, Italy from September 2nd to September 9th, 2012. The conference hosts were Inforum's Italian partners at IRPET, The Regional Institute for Economic Planning of Tuscany, and the University of Florence. See the conference page for details of the presentations and papers.

Inforum and the National Association of Manufacturers conducted a study of the economic impacts of budget cuts specified in the Budget Control Act of 2011. The study focused on cuts to defense spending and the likely effects on the national economy, on the nation's industries, and on state economies. Findings include a loss of about 1 million private sector jobs and about 1% of GDP by 2014, with California, Virginia, and Texas losing the most jobs. A press release, a report summary, and the full report are available.

Inforum contributed to the International Labour Organization's Global Employment Trends 2012 report. Inforum studied how the spending of companies' large cash reserves would affect GDP and employment. Using the LIFT model, two scenarios were developed. In the first scenario, excess cash reserves are invested in capital serving the industry in which a particular company operates. In the second scenario, cash reserves are invested in an Infrastructure Bank that provides funding to infrastructure projects throughout the country. In both cases, the study finds significant boosts to GDP and employment. A press release is available.

The 2011 Inforum Outlook conference was held on December 13 at the University of Maryland. The latest Inforum economic outlook was presented to a gathering of 80 professionals from government, business, and academia. See the conference page for additional details.

The nineteenth Inforum World Conference took place in Hazyview, South Africa, from August 21st to 28th, 2011. Hazyview is near the Kruger National Park and is located about seven hours from Johannesburg, South Africa. Accomodations were provided at the Hippo Hollow Country Estate. See the conference page for additional details and conference materials.

Inforum and the Economic Development Research Group investigated the economic impacts of deterioration of roads and other transportation infrastructure over the next 30 years. The work was sponsored by the American Society of Civil Engineers. The full report, titled "Failure to Act: The Economic Impact of Current Investment Trends in Surface Transportation Infrastructure", is available online.

Doug Meade and Bryan M. Shone of the U.S. Department of Defense presented their joint paper Potential Uses of DEPPS as an Analytical Tool for Defense Policy Makers at the 2011 conference of the Western Economics Association. Earlier papers presented at WEA conferences in 2008 and 2009 also are available.

Inforum staff presented recent work at the 19th International Input-Output Conference in Alexandria, Virginia on June 16th, 2011. The International Input-Output Association (IIOA) is a non-profit organization that promotes the use of input-output economic analysis around the world. Jeffrey Werling, Doug Meade, Doug Nyhus, and Ron Horst presented a paper titled "Health Care Spending in the Long Run: An Application of the Inforum LIFT Model". Doug Meade presented a paper titled " Using the Inforum LIFT and Mudan Models to Investigate the Impacts of Cap & Trade Legislation on International Leakages." Inforum partners from China, Denmark, Italy, and Russia also participated in the conference. A conference program is available.

Jeffrey Werling, Executive Director of Inforum, recently was quoted by U.S. News. Werling described reasons to be optimistic about the U.S. economy despite some recent disappointing economic indicators. In particular, Werling points to improving conditions in the manufacturing industry and the decreasing competitiveness of Chinese labor.

The 2010 Inforum Outlook conference was held on December 13 at the University of Maryland. The latest Inforum economic outlook was presented to a gathering of 70 professionals from government, business, and academia. See the conference page for additional details.

The eighteenth Inforum World Conference took place in Hikone, Japan, from September 5th to 10th, 2010. The conference was held at the Grand Duke Hotel in Hikone, home to the historical Hikone Castle. See the conference page for additional details and conference materials.

Keybridge Research and Inforum released the results of their analysis of Industrial Energy Consumers of America's (IECA) policy package. The study, titled "Economic Impact of the Industrial Energy Consumers of America's Sustainable Manufacturing & Growth Initiative", used Inforum's Lift model to measure the effects on the U.S. economy. Over the next two decades, the policy package is expected to achieve its goals by reducing GHG emissions, stimulating economic growth, and creating jobs.

Jeffrey Werling appeared in a recent Washington Examiner article to discuss the effects of federal aid on the Washington metropolitan housing market. Werling states that the "homebuyers' tax credit was a significant stimulus to the market." With federal stimulus funds being cut off, the area's housing market likely will have a difficult time maintaining its recent growth. On August 19th, Jeffrey Werling appeared on the Fox 5 morning news program to discuss the current status of the U.S. economy under President Obama.

Keybridge Research and Inforum released a report detailing the long-term economic impacts of electrifying the U.S. light-duty vehicle fleet. The study, commissioned by the Electrification Coalition, finds that a shift towards vehicle electrification yields a variety of benefits by 2030. America can reduce its dependency on oil and prepare itself to withstand future oil supply shocks. The number of jobs will increase, household income will rise, and the U.S. trade deficit will be smaller.

Jeffrey Werling, Executive Director of Inforum, was quoted in a New York Times article regarding energy efficiency in the U.S. military. Werling discusses how the United States is not immune to unexpected price shocks in the world petroleum market. Military leaders argue that a shift away from fossil-based energy source could strengthen America's military and save soliders' lives.

The 2009 Inforum Outlook conference was held on December 3 at the University of Maryland. The latest Inforum economic outlook was presented to a gathering of 60 professionals from government, business, and academia. See the press release and the conference page for additional details.

The seventeenth Inforum World Conference was hosted by the Riga Technical University in Jurmala, Latvia, from September 7th to 12th, 2009. The conference was held at the Lielupe Hotel in the resort community of Jurmala, near the capital city of Riga. See the conference page for additional details.

The Presidents Council of Economic Advisers (CEA) reported projections of U.S. labor market developments through 2016 and described education and training programs needed to develop a competitive workforce.  The CEA used industry employment projections from the Inforum LIFT model to complement Bureau of Labor Statistics forecasts of industry and occupation growth. The CEA web site provides the full report.

Jeff Werling and Ron Horst published Macroeconomic and Industry Impacts of 9/11: An Interindustry Macroeconomic Approach in the journal Peace Economics, Peace Science, and Public Policy. Preliminary results of this study were presented in November 2008 at the 55th Annual North American Meetings of the Regional Science Association International in New York City ( press release) and on March 17th, 2009, at the Third Annual DHS University Network Summit in Washington D.C. The study was organized by CREATE, a DHS-funded organization at USC dedicated to the study of terrorism.

Abstract: This paper is part of a collection organized by the Economic Impact Modeling Forum (EIMF) that convened in 2008 to quantify the economic impacts of the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001 (9/11). We consider the aggregate and industry-level impacts of the event. The general equilibrium model employed features both full industrial detail and a consistent, bottom-up representation of the macroeconomy. We employ a set of primary impacts on the Manhattan financial industry and the national travel industry as identified and estimated by EIMF colleagues. These impacts are imposed on a historic baseline economy which includes the 9/11 event. The results provide an estimate of what the economy would have experienced by avoiding 9/11, including the impacts of direct business interruption to specific sectors, the secondary impacts on related industries, and the tertiary impacts across the economy. The results show that 9/11 did affect economic activity negatively over 2001 to 2003. As is typical for a macroeconomic neoclassical growth model, the aggregate impact of the conjectured shocks dissipates over time. Indeed, this model shows that historic economic activity in 2004 to 2006 may have been elevated over what would have occurred in those years had 9/11 not occurred. We argue, therefore, that the full impact on activity and income should be computed as the net impact over 2001 to 2006. We find that the net, six-year effect on real GDP is relatively minor, at about 0.3 percent of GDP of 2001. Effects on real national income and personal consumption, however, were more significant, at about 0.6 percent.

The Business Roundtable today released a major study identifying policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions while minimizing economic costs. This study was a collaborative effort among member companies to develop, evaluate, and recommend technology-based solutions to meet the sustainable growth challenge. A key focus of the study was how technology adoption can be accelerated through informed policy and public-private partnership. The final study, The Balancing Act: Climate Change, Energy Security and the U.S. Economy , concludes that a successful policy for reducing greenhouse gas emissions would leverage a balanced portfoloio of technologies and eliminate barriers to technology development and deployment. One of the study's findings is that with a combination of policy leadership and aggressive adoption of carbon-reducing energy technologies, the costs of carbon reduction can be reduced by $1.9 trillion by 2050. The study was based on scenarios developed using the Inforum LIFT model of the U.S. economy, which analyzes the interaction between industries as well as macroeconomic performance. The LIFT model is well suited for this type of study since it can model the representation of the energy technologies, the industry price and output effects of a carbon tax, and the effects of policy and technology on GDP, real income, and other macroeconomic variables.

An Executive Summary and Text also are available. Please contact us for more information.

The International Input-Output Association's February 2009 newsletter features a series of articles in memory of Wassily Leontief to commemorate the tenth anniversary of his death. The articles are writen by colleagues of Leontief, telling how he influenced them and and the development of input-output economics. This special issue includes an article by Inforum's founder, Clopper Almon, who recalls his relationship with Leontief at Harvard University and beyond.

Securing America's Future Energy ( SAFE) is a non-partisan, not-for-profit organization based in Washington D.C. that strives to reduce the United States' dependence on oil and improve national security. In a speech at the National Press Club, Frederick W. Smith, CEO of FedEx and Co-Chairman of the SAFE organization's Energy Security Leadership Council (ESLC), presented research performed by Inforum and Keybridge Research. Inforum's efforts provided a long-term economic analysis of the Energy Security Leadership Council's National Strategy for Energy Security . The study revealed a variety of positive impacts on the United States economy. Smith's remarks, along with the full report, is available on the SAFE web site.

Preliminary estimates of macroeconomic and industry impacts of the U.S. auto industry crisis were presented at the 2008 Outlook Conference. Strong evidence was found against common reports on potential employment losses were the Detroit Three to fail. See the press release and the conference page for additional details.

The 2008 Inforum Outlook conference was held on December 9 at the University of Maryland. The latest Inforum economic outlook was presented to a gathering of 60 professionals from government, business, and academia. See the press release and the conference page for additional details.

Jeff Werling, Executive Director of Inforum, has recently appeared in several media outlets. In a September 8, 2008 article of Financial Week, Werling comments on the proposed mortgage bailout of the three major U.S. automakers. He also appeared on Nighly Business Report, a daily television program on PBS, on August 14, 2008. Werling commented on the rising retail inflation rates. He also appeared on the Fox 5 morning news program in October to discuss the recent financial crisis. The Washington Times quoted Werling in a December 10, 2008 article on thrift.

Inforum has updated multiple pieces of software and their associated documentation. Please make sure your software and documentation are up to date. See the G7 page for details. Also, please remember that EconData is updated regularly. EconData contains several thousand economic time series in a standard, easy-to-use form.

The sixteenth Inforum World Conference was hosted by the European University of Lefke, North Cyprus, from August 31st to September 7th, 2008. The conference was held at the Acapulco Beach Club & Resort Hotel in Kyrenia. See the conference page for additional details.

We are pleased to announce a new partnership between Inforum and the Centro de Investigaciones Socioeconómicas at Universidad Autónoma de Coahuila in Mexico. We welcome Dr. Alejandro Dávila Flores and his colleagues as they join the Inforum partnership, who collectively represent over 20 countries. We look forward to working with them to improve the representation of Mexico in the Inforum international modeling system, and we look forward to learning from their expertise in regional economic modeling.

Inforum's Fall Outlook Seminar was held on Thursday, November 29, 2007 at the Clubhouse on the University of Maryland Golf Course. About 35 guests attended the conference, including academics, policy makers, and industry representatives. See the conference page for additional details.

The Fifteenth Inforum World Conference took place in Trujillo, Spain from September 10th to September 16th, 2007. Trujillo is located in the southwestern Spanish region of Extremadura. Forty scholars from 14 countries came together to share their experiences with Inforum-type models and software.

University Alumni Nai-Chi Wang '71 Ph.D. and his wife Amy recently made a $50,000 contribution to the Dudley and Louisa Dillard Fund. The fund was organized in honor of Professor Dillard who chaired the department for twenty-five years. Its proceeds are used to attract distinguished scholars to the Department of Economics. The Wang's generosity did not go unnoticed. Almon's organization, the Interindustry Economic Research Fund, also donated $30,000 to the Dillard Fund. Over 35 years ago, Almon served as Wang's advisor and mentor. The paired donations spurred an unexpected reunion between the two. The full story is available here.

In this April 2007 report, Inforum provided economic analysis of the policies advocated by the Energy Security Leadership Council. The study finds significant improvements in energy efficiency yielding welfare improvements and increased economic security. The report is available here.

In this December 2006 Department of Commerce report, Inforum provided simulations of the effects on the U.S. economy of high oil and natural gas prices. Inforum's LIFT model was used to estimate effects on both the macro economy and on industries. In particular, Inforum studied the effects of high prices on energy-intensive industries.

In this March 29, 2006 CBO report to congress, Inforum provided simulations of the effects on the U.S. economy of shutdowns of several west coast ports. The port closures would significantly affect the amount of freight sent and received by shipping containers. Potential disruptions pose significant threats to national security and the U.S. economy.

On June 27, 2005, Jeff Werling presented an analysis of the effects of Chinese currency revaluation to the International Input-Output Association in Beijing, China. The research employed Inforum's Bilateral Trade Model.